GDP Posts on Forex Blog
Forex Calendar Aug 10 - Aug 15
Aug 9, 2008
The theme for this week in forex trading will be international GDP, CPI and trade balance reports. In all, continuing global economic deterioration could mean positive gains for the US Dollar.
Tuesday morning has several UK reports which may be Pound negative.
Tuesday night has 3 key reports from Japan - Trade Balance, GDP, and GDP annualized.
Thursday morning is laden with Euro-zone reports, including GDP and CPI for Germany (2am) France (2:45am) and the entire region (5am).
Sunday August 10
9:30pm Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Statement
Monday August 11
4am Italy Consumer Price Index MoM (expect 0.5%, previous 0.5%)
4:30am UK July Producer Price Index Output Core MoM (expect 0.4%, previous 0.3%)
4:30am UK July Producer Price Index Output Core YoY (expect 6.5%, previous 6.4%)
4:30am UK Trade Balance (expect -£4.20. billion , previous -£4.25 billion )
8:30am Canada June Housing Starts (expect 0.1%, previous 0%)
7pm UK RICS July House Price Survey (expect -90%, previous -88%)
7:50pm Japan July Corporate Price Index MoM (expect 0.8%, previous 0.8%)
7:50pm Japan July Corporate Price Index MoM (expect 5.7%, previous 5.6%)
9:30pm National Australia Bank Business Survey
Tuesday August 12
2:45am France June Current Account
2:45am France July Consumer Price Index MoM (expect -0.2%, previous +0.4%)
2:45am France July Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 3.7%, previous 3.6%)
4:30am UK July Consumer Price Index MoM (expect -0.2%, previous +0.7%)
4:30am UK July Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 4.2%, previous 3.8%)
4:30am UK July Core Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 1.7%, previous 1.6%)
8:30am US June Trade Balance (expect -$61.9 billion, previous -$59.8 billion)
6:45pm New Zealand Q2 Producer Prices
7:50pm Japan June Trade Balance (expect ¥293.6 billion, previous ¥529.4 billion)
7:50pm Japan Q2 GDP (expect -0.6%, previous 1.0%)
7:50pm Japan Q2 GDP Annualized (expect -2.3%, previous 4.0%)
Wednesday August 13
5:30am Bank of England Quarterly Inflation
8:30am US July Retail Sales (expect 0.4%, previous 0.1%)
8:30am US July Retail Sales excluding Autos (expect 0.7%, previous 0.8%)
10:35am US Crude Inventories
9pm Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation
Thursday August 14
2am Germany Q2 GDP (expect -0.8%, previous 1.5%)
2am Germany July Consumer Price Index MoM (0.6%, previous 0.6%)
2am Germany July Consumer Price Index YoY (3.3%, previous 3.3%)
2:45am France Q2 GDP (expect 0.1%, previous 0.5%)
2:45am France Q2 Non Farm Payrolls (expect 0.2%, previous 0.4%)
5am Euro-zone GDP (expect -0.2%, previous 0.7%)
5am Euro-zone July Consumer Price Index MoM (expect -0.1%, previous 0.4%)
5am Euro-zone July Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 4.1%, previous 4.0%)
8:30am US July Consumer Price Index MoM (expect 0.4%, previous 1.1%)
8:30am US July Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 5.2%, previous 5.0%)
8:30am US July Core Consumer Price Index MoM (expect 0.2%, previous 0.3%)
8:30am US July Core Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 2.4%, previous 2.4%)
6:45pm New Zealand June Retail Sales MoM
Friday August 15
9am US Treasury International Capital (TIC)
10am US August Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (expect 62.0, previous 61.2)
10:30am US Chicago Fed President Charles Evans to Speak on Economic Outlook
Euro, GDP, CPI, Yen, upcoming reports, Pound
Italian GDP Sends European FX Lower
Aug 8, 2008
Italy, the 3rd largest economy in the Eurozone, reported a preliminary -0.3% reduction in Q2 GDP overnight.
Previously, Italy had recorder a 0.5% increase for Q1 and -0.3% for Q4 2007.
News of the negative GDP has sparked a technical busting rally in the Greenback against the Euro, Pound, and Franc.
The EURUSD is trading at 1.5066, 100 pips below the 50% fibonacci retracement of 50%. This is a sharp drop below the 1.53 - 1.60 range the pair has traded at since March.
The GBPUSD is also seeing technical levels shattered. The pair is trading at 1.9201, 200 pips below the the 1.94 support.
The USDCHF is trading at 1.07, a 5 month high and well above 1.06 resistance.
In related news, ECB Governing Council Member Wellink indicated Friday the ECB was ready to raise rates should CPI climb higher. He also reinforced recent market expectations for negative Euro-zone GDP growth in the second quarter, stating "I think it won't look so good"
fibonacci, Euro, European Central Bank, GDP, EUR
Euro, US Numbers In Line
Jul 31, 2008
Key economic indicators out of Europe and the US this morning fell within range of expectations.
At 5am, Eurozone CPI registered 4.1% as expected. While that is 2% better than the ECB mandate of 2% CPI, chances for an ECB rate hike next month appear slim. Deteriorating economic conditions across much of Europe has led the bank to conclude demand will naturally fall off and thus curb price pressures.
This view was further bolstered by a slight up tick in Eurozone unemployment (7.3% vs expected 7.2%) and German employment losses (down 20k jobs).
In the US, Q@ GDP came in an initial reading of 1.9%. However, the big news was a downward revision in 2007 Q4 from 0.6% to -0.2%. Q1 2008 GDP was also revised lower from 1.0% to 0.9%.
The combined events initially sent the EURUSD above 1.56. However, the pair has declined below 1.56 ahead of the Non farm Payroll Report.
Euro, GDP, CPI, jobs report, USD
EURUSD Preview
Jul 30, 2008
The EURUSSD pair could see significant action the next 2 days.
To recap, the pair remains in a 5 month range of 1.53 - 1.60. In early July, as the Indy Mac collapse and fears over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac swept through markets, the pair briefly went above 1.60.
In the last 2 weeks, as various levels of the US government moved to shore up banking, and oil has decline some 15%, the greenback has recovered.
Today, despite a 3% rise in crude oil futures, US stocks and the Dollar remained strong. The Dollar came within 66 pips of the the very important 1.55 support. Since April, every trend that has passed through 1.55 has been sustained for no less than 2 weeks.
As the week ends, the EURUSD pair can move on 3 key events.
Thursday
At 5am eastern Eurozone CPI and unemployment will be released.
On CPI, the number is likely to come in as expected (4.1%), as German CPI came in as expected Tuesday. Given recent drops in consumer confidence and growing signs of a slowdown spreading across Europe, the CPI would have to come in sharply higher to justify any speculation of a further ECB rate hike.
The monthly decline in French employment may signal some weakness in the unemployment. Though, any miss is likely to be very narrow at this stage.
At 8:30 am, US Q2 Annualized GDP will be released
Expectations are all over the map on this one. I have seen calls from 1.0% to 4%. Given the impact of stimulus checks and a jobs number that has stubbornly held below 5.8%, annualized 2% or better seems likely.
Tomorrow seems to hold 3 scenarios (Note: I have listed them in the order I think most likely to occur)
- If numbers come in as expected, look for the pair to hover around 1.55 as traders wait for the Non Farm payroll report Friday.
- If US GDP comes in over 2% and Eurozone CPI reads 4.1% or lower, look for the US Dollar to break the 1.55 support.
- Should Eurozone CPI come in extremely hot (4.3% or more) and the US GDP disappoint, look for the Euro to push up to 1.57 resistance.
Friday
At 8:30am US Nonfarm payrolls and Unemployment Rate will be released
While the ADP report can be widely inaccurate, last month, the number was foretelling (coming in at -79k vs -74k in the NFP). Today, the ADP came in at +9k, suggesting the NFP will beat expectations. With initial claims dipping below 400k, and the 4 week average declining, their is definitely room for optimism. Right now, markets expect a reading of -75k.
Should the NFP beat expectations, it will definitely be dollar bullish and expectations for a Fed hike in late 2008 are likely to increase.
At this point, I do think the EURUSD is likely to close below 1.55 this week.
Euro, GDP, CPI, jobs report, EUR, USD
Eurozone Slowing Down
Jul 9, 2008
Yesterday, German and Belgium finance ministers stressed the need for a balance between inflation and growth. In essences, they were suggesting that a slow down in the Eurozone would naturally reduce inflationary pressures.
Today, those comments were followed up with signs of a European wide slow down.
First, trade balances worsened in Germany and France.
Then, the Eurozone Q1 GDP was finalized at 0.7%, vs expectations for 0.8%. Still a healthy annualized growth rate of 2.2%,
But then the real kicker came in to play. The German IFO and suggested that annualized GDP at 1.6%. And this figure was based on the assumption oil prices stabilize at US $135 and the Euro remains around 1.57
In particular, they noted "the acceleration (in Q1 GDP) clearly overstated the underlying trend. Real GDP growth is forecast to slowdown considerably in the coming quarters, expanding at rates of 0.0% in Q2 and 0.3% in both Q3 and Q4"
The Ifo went on to report "The expansion of investment is likely to moderate considerably in the coming quarters as the demand outlook becomes dimmer, pressures on productive capacity are easing and external financing conditions are deteriorating."
And, most ominously, they warned of housing problems in other European countries. Noting, "the construction component of investment is depressed by the real-estate downturn observed in an increasing number of Euro-zone countries."
Outside of the Eurozone proper, the UK has gone into contraction in service, manufacturing, and construction.
And now Ireland, the Irish tiger, is also warning on a recession. Irish unemployment has climbed to 5.7%, property prices have dropped 10%, and the economy shrank by 1.5% in Q1.
Eventually, slow downs in the UK and Ireland will spillover to the Eurozone.
Forex markets could be facing a rather interesting situation later this year, as the Fed may be raising rates at a time when central banks across Europe are cutting.
Euro, GDP, housing, Ifo
Asian Forex News: New Zealand Disappoints, Japanese Inflation Hits Decade High
Jun 26, 2008
All signs point to a rate cut for the Kiwi.
New Zealand's trade deficit grew by $196 million in May. This was far worse than the expected rise of $150 million. Thats nearly a $250 million swing!
Merchandise exports were up 11.2% year over year. However, merchandise imports were up 17.3%.
This comes on the heels of yesterday's current account deficit, which was an alarming $13.8 billion, 7.8% of GDP.
Considering the strength of the Tui oilfield and dairy prices, this is indeed worrying news for the Kiwis.
To top that off, New Zealand Q1 GDP was finalized at 1.9%, slightly worse than the expected 2.1%.
And the gloomy news kept on coming out of Asia.
Japan reported a jump in inflation from 0.9% in April to 1.5% in May. This is the largest month over month increase in a decade. However, traders need to keep some perspective. Japan reintroduced a fuel tax in May, which may account for some of the rise.
Separately, Food prices rose 2.4%, Like many other countries, japan excludes food when calculating CPI.
Japan's household spending also fell -3.2% in May, larger than the expected reading of -2.2%.
On the plus side, japanese unemployment remained flat at 4%, as expected.
Relevant Forex prices At 11:30pm est
USDJPY 106.970 (-0.990, -0.92%)
AUDJPY 102.35 (-1.20, -1.16%)
EURJPY 168.28 (-0.97, -0.57%)
NZDUSD 0.7565 (-0.0008, -0.11%)
NZDAUD 1.2636 (-0.0020, -0.16%)
EURNZD 2.0786 (+0.0091, +0.44%)
inflation, GDP, CPI, JPY, NZD, Yen, Kiwi
The Calm Before the USD Storm?
Jun 24, 2008
Bring back Fed Speak.
The Fed will have to craft tomorrow's statement very carefully. Perhaps some good ole' Greenspan ambiguity would be best.
A spat of negative news today confirmed the US economy is facing difficult times. The Case-Shiller index showed a whopping 15.3% annual decline in home prices. The OFHEO report, which tracks mortgages backed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, showed an annual drop of 4.6%. The Richmond Fed Survey dropped to a low of 4.5 And consumer confidence fell far more than expected, to a reading of 50.4 (vs expected 56.5).
Yet the dollar didn't fall of the face of the earth.
Instead, it remained within a fairly narrow range against the Euro, Pound, and Yen. Evidently, traders feel the Fed is turning hawkish.
Aside from a month of hawkish commentary, what fundamentals can rationalize a strong statement out of the Fed?
1. Uptick in Q1 GDP
I can't stress this one enough. Q1 GDP is expected to be revised up to 1.2% later this week. From an initial reading of 0.6% (later revised 0.9%), that is fantastic.
2. The ARM Conversion Wave
Years ago, the Economist put out a great article discussing the housing bubble pre-burst. In it, they included a graph detailing the ARM conversion wave. The wave had a considerable upswing in Spring 2007 (start of credit crisis), another bump Spring 2008, and a final massive bump in 2010. That suggests that housing will see at least a temporary reprieve for the next 18 months.
3. FDI Outflows are Dropping, Inflows are Picking Up
The OECD today reported that foreign outflows have dropped sharply among member nations. Outflows are now expected to come in at $1.14 trillion, down 37% from the $1.82 trillion in 2007. Indeed, lower than the $1.21 trillion in 2006.
And last week, the TIC showed a sharp increase of inflows of $115 billion vs expected $63.3 billion.
4. Durable Goods Orders
The last 2 reports have beat expectations. The latest report will come out almost 2 hours before the Fed statement. Another surprise (especially excluding autos) is a sure sign of US resiliency.
5. Politicians are Dragging Us Down
It is not a great stretch to suggest political speeches are helping to drag down consumer sentiment.
The Fed is charged with remaining out of politics. As such, they should be expected to ignore the constant down talking of the US economy that is coming out of the politicos.
6. The Greenspan Tarnishment
Former Fed Chairman has taken a lot of heat for leaving rates too low for too long. Bernanke must be conscious of this perception. He must show this Fed will not repeat the mistakes of the past.
Expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged with commentary highly suggestive of rate hikes in the near future.
GDP, housing, Bernanke, durable goods, Fed, FOMC, USD
FX News Under the Radar
Jun 21, 2008
Some FX news you might have missed Friday.
1. IMF upgrades US growth to 2% for 2009.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased forecasts for US 2009 GDP growth to 2%. According to the IMF, The US downturn has been mitigated by well-timed fiscal stimulus, strong export growth, and healthy corporate balance sheets. However, the IMF warned of downside risks from "strains on household and bank finances, and now also by higher commodity prices."
Read the full release at the IMF
2. California Unemployment Hits 6.8%
California, hard hit by the housing crisis, hit a 2008 low in unemployment. Joblessness rose 0.6% month-over-month and was a full 1.5% higher than May 2007. The total number of unemployed came in at 1.26 million, up 300k year over year.
With the state facing a $15.2 billion deficit, things are bound to get worse. Among other proposals for a deficit fix has been an increase in already high state income taxes. Califonria's rate of 9.3% comes in 2nd only to Vermont. Higher state taxes could impose a major drag on a key component of the US economy.
3. India inflation hits 11%
India's wholesale inflation rose to 11% Year over Year. This is far higher than last week's reading of 8.75%. Unlike many other countries, India tracks inflation by tracking the wholesale price of 435 goods.
India is facing a very difficult period, as they have had to cut fuel subsidies by 10% and and just last week the central bank increased short-term borrowing rates from 7.75% to 8%.
The Sensex exchange is down 30% this year since peaking at 21,206.80 in January. The index closed at 14,571.29 Friday.
IMF, India, inflation, GDP, jobs report
Kiwi Down Against 16 Majors, Rate Cuts this Fall
Jun 5, 2008
As expected, the RBNZ held rates steady at 8.25%. But,governor Bollard shocked forex traders today with an extremely dovish statement after their scheduled meeting. In his statement Bollard stated the RBNZ was "in a position to lower the OCR later this year". Indeed, New Zealand has been hit with their own slowdown recently. While house prices recently rose 2.7%, sales are down severely across the country. This has prompted the RBNZ to predict a 13% reduction in home values, 22% when inflation is factored in.
Bollard suggested that inflation will hit 4.7% in Q3, as such the bank is unlikely to cut until they see further deterioration. But in a nod to the realities of the slowdown, Bollard suggested GDP expansion would be extremely limited this year with only a modest recovery next year. This sharply contrasts with predictions made earlier this year for strong growth. Should weakness persist, the chances for a September rate cut will certainly pick up.
One shore over, Australia continues to see strong growth. GDP beat expectations by rising to 3.6% annualized - far higher than the 2.8% estimated. And, the trade deficit improved drastically, shrinking from AUS $2.55 billion to AUS $957 million in April. Indeed, with an expected growth of 20% in mining contract terms, and increases to iron ore still unaccounted for, the trade deficit may vanish entirely. Forex traders continue to speculate that Australia may raise rates once again in the next year.
September-October may be a wild period if the US and Australia raise rates while New Zealand cuts.
The Kiwi is down against all 16 majors. The NZDUSD is at 76.67, down more than 2% from yesterday.
GDP, NZD, rate cut, Kiwi, RBNZ
EUR Slips to $1.5547 on German Unemployment, US GDP
May 29, 2008
Perhaps the table has turned..
Last week it was the Euro looking like it had a bright future on expectations for a ECB rate hike.
The last 2 days,.a string of positives has put the greenback on a positive footing.
In the latest headlines, German unemployment rose by an unexpected 4k applicants. Expectations had been for a 25k drop. Adding to that, Eurozone consumer confidence fell to a 32 month low of -15. Expectations had been for a stable reading of -12. However, it would be a mistake to miss why the ez confidence number fell. It appears the main driver was a rise in consumer prices across the Euorzone, which rose 3.3%. This is consistent with the inflation rate of 3% reported by Germany yesterday.
On a more positive note, Eurozone Retail PMI rose to 53.1 from a reading of 41.8 in April. This is the largest year-over-year increase in 13 months. Sales rose in Germany and France, but fell in Italy.
Back here in the States, US Q1 GDP was revised up from 0.6% to 0.9%. The revision was largely driven by exports, as the annualized trade deficit fell to $480.2 billion. That is the smallest since 2002. In addition, Dallas Fed President Fisher and Minneapolis President Gary Stern came out with warnings on inflation. You can, and should, read their comments at CNBC.
In other news, Japanese retail sales fell to 0.1%, far below expectations for an 0.6% reading.
The EURUSD has fallen to $1.5533 in early hours on the West Coast. It may test the $1.550 resistance depending on comments later today from Fed Chairman Bernanke (2:30 est) and Vice Chairman Kohn (7pm est). The greenback has climbed to ¥105.164 yen, well above the 10 day moving average.
Greenback, Euro, GDP, jobs report, EUR, USD
US Durable Goods Beat Expectations, Oil Demand Falling
May 28, 2008
In major news, the US Durable Goods (items lasting more than 3 years) fell 0.5% in April. Analysts had expected a 1.0 - 1.5% drop. The business spending proxy (which excludes defense and aircraft) orders jumped 4.2% - making it the largest rise since December. Shipments (exports) rose 1.2%. And most impressively, electrical orders surged a record 27.8%! This is definitely not a recessionary reading.
Quick Note: Chuck has long thought this US down turn would ultimately end with another tech boom - as the effects of high bandwidth 15 Mbps at home, (OMG I would have thought it impossible when I was on 28.8kbps in 1995), HD (VHS to DVD was a big part of the late 90s boom), and other technology improvements to the web will likely result in a 2nd "dot-com" era. Check out http://www.searchme.com to see what Cash means. That electrical orders were up sharply (partly on orders for High-Def products) is a sign that Chuck may be right.
..back on topic. The US Dept of Transportation reported that Americans drove 4.3% fewer miles in March (thats 11 billion miles). This is the largest drop since the agency started keeping track in 1942. In addition, the EIA reported gasoline demand is down 0.6% this year and will see the first annual decline since 1991. The EIA estimates demand will fall for all of petroleum's finished products - including jet fuel, diesel, and heating oil.
Proving how rumor/momentum based energy is these days - oil futures initially fell more than $2, but rebounded to close $2.18 after Morgan Stanley's Richard Berner forecast $150 per barrel this year. Mr. Berner basis his comments on continued demand from developing countries. However, some asian markets have already started to cut subsidies, and others are likely to follow suit. In a related note, Indonesia pulled out of OPEC today, as they had become a net importer of oil. No - not because of peak oil - but because foreign firms are uncomfortable with local laws and government corruption. The move leaves OPEC with only 12 members (Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Suadia Arabia, UAE, and Venezuala).
US Q1 GDP may be revised up from 0.6% to 0.9% today. Keep an eye on that!
In late trading, the USD rose to ¥104.93, the upper end of the ¥102 - ¥105 range, but above the ¥104.90 resistance.
GDP, durable goods, USD
EUR, GBP See Minor Breakouts, Retreat on Pessimism
May 27, 2008
Backing up comments from several prominent Germans last week, Q1 GDP for Germany came in at 1.5%. Annualized rates are at 2.6%, the strongest growth in 12 years for the Eurozone's largest economy. Digging deeper, construction and business investment were strong drivers for the German growth. The Euro reached as high as $1.5818.
However, the Euro run was short lived as the Gfk consumer sentiment index fell more than expected. The Gfk data came in at 4.9, far below expectations of a 5.8 reading. All 3 components - economic outlook, spending, and personal income were down. In late trading, the EURUSD is at $1.5709. The pair closed at $1.5775 on Friday.
The Pound reached $1.9825 before retreating. BBA mortgage approvals saw an 8.8% rise in mortgage approvals to slightly over 38,700. However, that is still almost 40% lower than last year. In late trading, the Pound is at $1.9751, slightly below Friday' close of $1.9794.
In other European news, the UBS consumption indicator - which measures domestic demand - fell to 2.18 in April from an upwardly revised reading of 2.25 in March. This is still above the long term average of 1.50, but may be a prime indicator of the global toll of the oil. The CHFUSD was $1.0315 at press time.
Euro, GDP, EUR, GBP, Pound
A Bundle of US Data This Week May Move Dollar Trades
May 27, 2008
The US will see a number of potentially trade driving reports in this holiday shortened week.
On Tuesday May 27
The S&P Case-Shiller Index at 9am est.
At 10am, New Home Sales and consumer confidence will be reported.
Wednesday May 28
Durable goods will be reported at 8:30am est, before equity markets open.
Thursday May 29
Revised Q1 GDP and weekly jobless claims are reported at 8:30am est.
Also, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke speaks at 2:30pm in Basel Switzerland. And Fed Vice Chairman Kohn talks at 7pm.
On Friday May 30
Consumer sentiment will be reported at 10am est
Other notable forex movers will be the German Unemployment numbers May 29 and Canada's Q1 GDP.
In light volume May 26, the EURUSD held above the $1.5750 support. Given the upbeat comments from the Germans last week, and the negative mood from the US Fed, this week's data has the potential for sending the EURUSD above the $1.58 resistance - we shall see.
GDP, jobs report, housing, Bernanke, upcoming reports, consumer confidence, Fed
Euro Up on Comments, UK and US Holidays. But Face It, the Data was Bad This Week.
May 23, 2008
The Euro closed up at $1.5775 on Friday, just shy of the $1.58 resistance. Overall, the Euro gained 1.2% against the dollar this week.
Eurozone data finished a week of negative news with 1 more bad report. The Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) fell to 51.1, lower than the expected reading of 51.7 and last month's reading of 51.9. Services fell 1.4 to 50.6, manufacturing was also down slightly to 50.5. Germany and France - which are the 2 largest Eurozone economies - experienced significant declines in services.
Despite the string of negative news this week, forex traders remained in bull mode. This was fueled by growing expectations that the ECB may actually raise rates this year despite ever growing signs of a European slowdown.
Traders were also preparing for holidays in the UK and US Monday, when markets will be closed. closed market holidays typically create illiquid markets and greater volatility.
The Euro has a strong chance of testing $1.60 next few weeks, as the US will see a significant amount of macro data next week and then earnings reports from the major financial institutions in early June.
The British Pound rose slightly to $1.9794, testing the $19.8 level. UK GDP came in at 0.4% and remains on pace for an annual growth of 2.5%.
ECB, Euro, GDP, EUR, Pound
Japan Economy Grows More Than Expected, Yen Edges Up Against Dollar
May 15, 2008
Japan's economic revival continued, with news the economy had grown 0.8% in Q1 2008 (3.3% annualized). This was the 3rd staright quarter of expansion, diven by exports and private residential investments. This was 0.01% over the expected 0.7% for the first quarter. The Nikkei was up 0.6%
Forex traders reacted tepidly, sending the Yen up 0.07% (104.89 ¥) in late trading. Considering the weak US manufacturing data (see below), and the recent dollar peak of 105.70 hit earlier this month - this is far from a resounding vote of confidence for the yen.
Read more at Fox News
GDP, JPY, Yen
Analysts Wrong - ZEW Survey Weak
Apr 15, 2008
The ZEW Indicator for German confidence fell an unexpected 8.7 points to -40.7 today. Market analysts had been expecting a minor improvement in the ZEW indicator. The historical average is 30.0. Overall confidence across the Eurozone declined 9.8 points to -44.8.
Despite this negative news, Germany is still expected to see GDP growth of 1.7% this year. And, analysts still do not expect the the European Central Bank to cut rates in the near future.
Read more at ZEW
Euro, ZEW Survey, GDP
