consumer confidence Posts on Forex Blog
Forex Events June 22 - June 25
Jun 22, 2008
This week will be dominated by US data. The key mover may be comments from the Fed rate decision at 2:15pm est Wednesday.
Events Monday and Friday are clearly Euro positive, Greenback negative. Watch for the Euro to test the 1.5800 resistance on Monday. If it finally breaks the range, we could see an end to the sideways trading of the last few months as the ECB is definitely going to hike rates July 3rd.
New Zealand and Japan, 2 key parts of the carry trade, report significant data late Wednesday evening. Surprises on either side could be an omen for future carry trade volatility.
All times eastern standard time
Monday June 23
4am German IFO - Current and Expectations
4am Euro-zone PMI Services (expect 50.4)
4am Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing (expect 50.2)
Tuesday June 24
4am Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator
9am Case Shiller Home Price Index (expect 168.8)
10am US Consumer Confidence (expect 56.7, a 16 year low)
7:50pm Japan Trade balance (exclude services)
Wednesday June 25
8:30am US Durable Good Orders (expect -0.9% excluding transport)
10am US New Home sales (expect 530k, a flat reading)
2:15pm Fed Rate Decision (expect hold at 2%)
6:45pm New Zealand Current Account (expect -7.5%)
Thursday June 26
7:30am US fed Vice Chairman Speaks at ECB
8:30am US Q1 GDP finalized (expect 1.2% from initial 0.6%, thats big folks. Note, upgraded from 0.6% to 0.9% previously)
10am US Existing Home Sales
6:45pm New Zealand Q1 GDP (expect 2.1%)
6:45pm New Zealand May Trade Balance (expect +150million)
7:30pm Japan CPI
7:50pm Japan Retail Trade (Domestic)
Friday June 27
2:50am France GDP (expect 2.2%)
4am Euro-zone Current Account
4:30am Great Britain Q1 GDP (expect 2.5%)
10:00am US university of Michigan Consumer Confidence (expect 56.8)
European Central Bank, CPI, Carry Trade, trade balance, housing, upcoming reports, consumer confidence, durable goods, Fed, IFO
US Economic Calendar June 9 - June 13
Jun 8, 2008
Monday June 9
Pending Home Sales (expect 82.6, down 0.4)
NY Fed Governor Timothy Geithner Speaks About Economy (8:15am est)
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Vice Chairman Donald Kohn Speak About Inflation (3:15pm)
Tuesday June 10
Manpower Employment Outlook for Q3
Imports (expect $209.1 billion, +$2.4 billion)
Exports (expect $149.7 billion, +$1.2 billion)
Trade Balance (expect -$59.4 billion, +1.2 billion)
Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher Speaks
Wednesday June 11
Quarterly Services for Q1
Beige Book for June 24-25 FOMC meeting
Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn speaks
Fed Governor Randolph Kroszner speaks
Thursday June 12
Retails Sales (expect -0.3%)
Retail Sales excluding Auto (expect +0.2%)
Friday June 13
CPI (expect +0.2%)
Core Index (expect +0.1% to 2.2%)
University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment (expect 55)
CPI, trade balance, housing, upcoming reports, consumer confidence, Fed
FX Calendar: June 2 - June 6
Jun 1, 2008
After a couple weeks of see-saw data from the Eurozone and US, the FX market is looking for a definitive direction this week. US Reports will likely dominate Forex headlines. US Employment numbers on Wednesday (ADP) and Friday (Non Farm payrolls) have the potential to be major movers.
The European Central bank and Bank of England announce rates Thursday. Both are expected to remain flat.
Monday June 2
4:30am est - UK Mortgage Approvals (expect 65k, +1k)
10:00am est - US ISM Manufacturing (expect 48.5, -0.1)
Tuesday June 3
5:00am est - Eurozone MoM PPI (expect 6.1%, +0.4%)
7:01pm est - UK Consumer Confidence (expect 67, -3)
7:15pm est - Japan Capital Spending (expect -9.8%, -2.1)
Wednesday June 4
4:00am est - Eurozone Composite PMI (expect flat at 51.1)
5:00am est - Eurozone Retail Sales (expect 0.2%, +0.6%)
6:00am est - UK PMI Services (expect 50.5%, +0.1%)
8:15am est - US ADP Employment Change (expect -30k, -40k)
10:00am est - ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (expect 51, -1)
Thursday June 5
7:00am est - BOE Rates (expect unchanged at 5%)
7:45am est - ECB Rates (expect unchanged at 4%)
Friday June 6
8:30am est - Non Farm payroll (expect -51k, -71k)
8:30am est - Unemployment Rate (expect 5.1%, -0.1%)
Bank of England, ECB, PPI, interest rates, jobs report, ISM, housing, upcoming reports, consumer confidence
A Bundle of US Data This Week May Move Dollar Trades
May 27, 2008
The US will see a number of potentially trade driving reports in this holiday shortened week.
On Tuesday May 27
The S&P Case-Shiller Index at 9am est.
At 10am, New Home Sales and consumer confidence will be reported.
Wednesday May 28
Durable goods will be reported at 8:30am est, before equity markets open.
Thursday May 29
Revised Q1 GDP and weekly jobless claims are reported at 8:30am est.
Also, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke speaks at 2:30pm in Basel Switzerland. And Fed Vice Chairman Kohn talks at 7pm.
On Friday May 30
Consumer sentiment will be reported at 10am est
Other notable forex movers will be the German Unemployment numbers May 29 and Canada's Q1 GDP.
In light volume May 26, the EURUSD held above the $1.5750 support. Given the upbeat comments from the Germans last week, and the negative mood from the US Fed, this week's data has the potential for sending the EURUSD above the $1.58 resistance - we shall see.
GDP, jobs report, housing, Bernanke, upcoming reports, consumer confidence, Fed
