PMI Posts on Forex Blog
ISM Boosts Greenback, Portends NFP Drop?
Jul 1, 2008
The ISM beat market expectations today, as PMI came in at 50.2 vs 48.0 expected.
The last time the report came in above 50 (the line between contraction and growth) was January 2008.
Markets reacted positively, with the DJIA up around 100 pts. The market had started the short trading week down 160 points.
The sentiment carried over to the currencies, as the Pound dropped below the 2.00 rate reached overnight.
Market participants would be wise to take caution with this report. Prices are up sharply - since October 07 the report has risen from a reading of 63 to 91.5. That is by far the largest move in any of the 10 components over a similar period.
Additionally, Employment came in at 43.7, nearly 2 points off May's reading of 45.5. That may spell trouble for Thursday's Non Farm Payroll report. The NFP will be released at 8:30am est, 45 minutes after the ECB meeting. US Average Hourly Earning will be release at the same time.
If the EURUSD is to break the 1.58 resistance that has held sway since March, Thursday seems to be the day.
Table of ISM Data since the markets peaked in October.
| Jun | May | Apr | Mar | Feb | Jan | Dec | Nov | Oct | |
| PMI | 50.2 | 49.6 | 48.6 | 48.6 | 48.3 | 50.7 | 48.4 | 50.0 | 50.4 |
| New Orders | 49.6 | 49.7 | 46.5 | 46.5 | 49.1 | 49.5 | 46.9 | 52.5 | 52.8 |
| Production | 51.5 | 51.2 | 49.1 | 48.7 | 50.7 | 55.2 | 48.6 | 51.3 | 50.1 |
| Employment | 43.7 | 45.5 | 45.4 | 49.2 | 46.0 | 47.1 | 48.7 | 48.4 | 51.8 |
| Supllier Deliveries | 55.1 | 53.7 | 54.0 | 53.6 | 50.1 | 52.8 | 52.6 | 51.5 | 50.7 |
| Inventories | 51.2 | 48.0 | 48.1 | 44.9 | 45.4 | 49.1 | 45.4 | 46.4 | 46.5 |
| Customers' Inventories | 55.0 | 47.0 | 45.0 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 49.5 | 51.5 | 49.0 | 54.0 |
| Prices | 91.5 | 87.0 | 84.5 | 83.5 | 75.5 | 76.0 | 68.0 | 67.5 | 63.0 |
| Backlog of Orders | 47.5 | 46.0 | 51.5 | 47.5 | 45.0 | 44.0 | 43.0 | 41.5 | 46.0 |
| Exports | 58.5 | 59.5 | 57.5 | 56.5 | 56.0 | 58.5 | 52.5 | 58.5 | 57.0 |
| Imports | 46.0 | 49.5 | 48.0 | 45.0 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 48.0 | 47.5 | 47.5 |
inflation, ISM, PMI
Euro Drops on Weak PMI, IFO
Jun 23, 2008
DailyFX nailed the IFO numbers spot on, but PMI comes in weaker than anyone expected.
Euro-zone PMI came in at contraction levels, sharply lower than expected.
Services slumped to 49.5 (from 50.6 in May, vs expected 50.5)
Manufacturing slipped to 49.1 (from 50.6 in May, vs expected 50.2)
Composite fell to 49.5 (from 51.1 in May, vs expected 50.7)
The German IFO survey came in with the following numbers
Climate 101.3
Situation 108.3
Expectations 94.7
At 7;30am est the Euro is lower against most of the majors.
EURUSD 1.5516 (-0.0101, -0.65%)
GBPEUR 1.2628 (-0.0007, -0.06%)
EURAUD 1.63130 (-0.00310, -0.19%)
EURNZD 2.0477 (-0.0004, -0.02%)
EURCHF 1.6202 (+0.0035, 0.22%)
Read the IFO survey
EUR, IFO, PMI
