Pound Posts on Forex Blog
UK: RICS, Retail Sales Down
Aug 11, 2008
The latest RICS and retail sales surveys show continued deterioration in the UK economy.
In the latest RICS survey, 93.9% of 303 contributors reported declining home values. This was somewhat above market expectations for a a reading of -88%. Nevertheless, July home sales set another record low, reading at a pace of 14.4, down 40.4% for the year. And, the ratio of unsold property vs completed sales fell to 17.2%, the lowest ;eve; in 13 years.
The news was not much better on the retail front. BRC data indicates same store sales declined -0.9% in July vs a previous rate of -0.4% in June. Total sales decline to +1.7% vs 2.1% in June.
The UK Consumer Price Index and Trade Balance will be reported early tomorrow morning.
GBP, retail sales, economic report, RICS, Pound
Forex Calendar Aug 10 - Aug 15
Aug 9, 2008
The theme for this week in forex trading will be international GDP, CPI and trade balance reports. In all, continuing global economic deterioration could mean positive gains for the US Dollar.
Tuesday morning has several UK reports which may be Pound negative.
Tuesday night has 3 key reports from Japan - Trade Balance, GDP, and GDP annualized.
Thursday morning is laden with Euro-zone reports, including GDP and CPI for Germany (2am) France (2:45am) and the entire region (5am).
Sunday August 10
9:30pm Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Statement
Monday August 11
4am Italy Consumer Price Index MoM (expect 0.5%, previous 0.5%)
4:30am UK July Producer Price Index Output Core MoM (expect 0.4%, previous 0.3%)
4:30am UK July Producer Price Index Output Core YoY (expect 6.5%, previous 6.4%)
4:30am UK Trade Balance (expect -£4.20. billion , previous -£4.25 billion )
8:30am Canada June Housing Starts (expect 0.1%, previous 0%)
7pm UK RICS July House Price Survey (expect -90%, previous -88%)
7:50pm Japan July Corporate Price Index MoM (expect 0.8%, previous 0.8%)
7:50pm Japan July Corporate Price Index MoM (expect 5.7%, previous 5.6%)
9:30pm National Australia Bank Business Survey
Tuesday August 12
2:45am France June Current Account
2:45am France July Consumer Price Index MoM (expect -0.2%, previous +0.4%)
2:45am France July Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 3.7%, previous 3.6%)
4:30am UK July Consumer Price Index MoM (expect -0.2%, previous +0.7%)
4:30am UK July Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 4.2%, previous 3.8%)
4:30am UK July Core Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 1.7%, previous 1.6%)
8:30am US June Trade Balance (expect -$61.9 billion, previous -$59.8 billion)
6:45pm New Zealand Q2 Producer Prices
7:50pm Japan June Trade Balance (expect ¥293.6 billion, previous ¥529.4 billion)
7:50pm Japan Q2 GDP (expect -0.6%, previous 1.0%)
7:50pm Japan Q2 GDP Annualized (expect -2.3%, previous 4.0%)
Wednesday August 13
5:30am Bank of England Quarterly Inflation
8:30am US July Retail Sales (expect 0.4%, previous 0.1%)
8:30am US July Retail Sales excluding Autos (expect 0.7%, previous 0.8%)
10:35am US Crude Inventories
9pm Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation
Thursday August 14
2am Germany Q2 GDP (expect -0.8%, previous 1.5%)
2am Germany July Consumer Price Index MoM (0.6%, previous 0.6%)
2am Germany July Consumer Price Index YoY (3.3%, previous 3.3%)
2:45am France Q2 GDP (expect 0.1%, previous 0.5%)
2:45am France Q2 Non Farm Payrolls (expect 0.2%, previous 0.4%)
5am Euro-zone GDP (expect -0.2%, previous 0.7%)
5am Euro-zone July Consumer Price Index MoM (expect -0.1%, previous 0.4%)
5am Euro-zone July Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 4.1%, previous 4.0%)
8:30am US July Consumer Price Index MoM (expect 0.4%, previous 1.1%)
8:30am US July Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 5.2%, previous 5.0%)
8:30am US July Core Consumer Price Index MoM (expect 0.2%, previous 0.3%)
8:30am US July Core Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 2.4%, previous 2.4%)
6:45pm New Zealand June Retail Sales MoM
Friday August 15
9am US Treasury International Capital (TIC)
10am US August Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (expect 62.0, previous 61.2)
10:30am US Chicago Fed President Charles Evans to Speak on Economic Outlook
Euro, GDP, CPI, Yen, upcoming reports, Pound
Euro, Pound Fall on European Pessimism
Aug 7, 2008
The Euro is off sharply against most of the majors (EURAUD is currently the only exception). FX markets are adjusting for a rapid slow down in the Eurozone. Indeed, rumors abound that Eurozone Q2 GDP will be negative when reported Thursday August 14 at 2am est. Overall, the economic calendar is laden with UK and Euro reports, which may partly account for the 200+ pips drop in the EURUSD.
For the greenback, today's rally has to be somewhat of a head scratcher. Today&39;s news would have clobbered the dollar last month. Citigroup and Merrill Lynch announced they are buying back a combined $19 billion in securities from investors. AIG earnings disappointed big time. And, their was yet another pipeline attack, this time Turkey.
That the dollar is rallying in the face of such negative news may be a sure sign of a bottom.
The dollar is certainly favored in overnight index swaps, which are pricing in cuts of 50bps for the UK and 25bps for the ECB over the next 12 months. Conversely, the index is pricing in 75bps in US rate hikes over the next year.
Technically speaking, the Euro has fallen below a significant support at 1.53. The 50% fibonacci of 1.60 comes in at 1.5175, which should provide the next significant level of support.
Greenback, Euro, EUR, Pound, USD
FX Preview July 20 - July 25
Jul 19, 2008
This is a light weak for market data, with the most interesting reports coming out of:
Australia (PPI on Sunday, CPI Tuesday)
Canada (Retail Sales Tuesday and PPI Wednesday)
UK (BOE minutes Wednesday, Retail Sales Thursday, and Q2 GDP Friday)
Be careful getting long AUDUSD as the breakdown in oil and gold could spell trouble for the commodity based Aussie. I would stay long AUDNZD as that play is based on the comparative directions of the 2 economies.
Earnings from several regional banks and a possible diplomatic deal with Iran could be the biggest market movers for the USD.
I will be taking the next week off. Have fun trading!
Sunday July 20
9:30pm Australian PPI (expect 1.6% QoQ, 5.3% YoY)
Monday July 21
3:15am Swiss Producer and Import Prices (expect 0.5% MoM, 4.4% YoY)
time not listed Bank Of America Earnings (expect 0.53 a share)
Tuesday July 22
2:15am Swiss June Trade Balance (expect 1.6 billion)
4am Italy Trade Balance
8:10m US treasurer Hank Paulson Speaks
8:30am Canadian Retail Sales (expect 0.5% MoM)
9:30pm Australian CPI (expect 1.3% QoQ, 4.3% YoY)
time not listed Bank of Florida earnings (expect -0.01 per share)
after market close Etrade earnings (expect -0.14 per share)
after market close Washington Mutual earnings (expect -1.05 a share)
Wednesday July 23
4am Italy Retail Sales (expect 0% MoM, -0.4% YoY)
4:30am Bank of England minutes from last policy meeting
7am Canadian PPI (expect 0.5% MoM, 2.9% YoY)
7am Canadian PPI Core (expect 0.1% MoM, 1.6% YoY)
10:30am US Crude Inventories
5pm Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (expect hold at 8.25%)
Thursday July 24
4am German IFO Survey (look for weakness mirroring the ZEW Survey last week)
4am Eurozone Current Account
4:30am UK Retail Sales (expect -2.2% MoM, 4.4% YoY)
10am US Existing Home Sales (expect 4.97 million)
7:30pm Japan CPI July
Friday July 25
4:30am UK Q2 GDP (expect 0.2% QoQ, 1.6% YoY)
8:30am US Durable Orders (expect 0%)
10am US New Home Sales (expect 507k)
10am US Michigan July Consumer Sentiment Finalized (expect 56.3)
time not supplied T Rowe Price earnings (expect 0.60 per share)
BOE, CAD, AUD, upcoming reports, RBNZ, Ifo, Pound
Majors Roundup For June 16
Jun 16, 2008
The trading week got under way with events all over the world driving currency pricing.
The Pound rose on CPI speculation, and anticipation of a plan from Governor Meyer. The Euro rose on CPI data and ECB comments. The greenback fell early on Empire Manufacturing, an early spike in oil, and Lehman Brothers first quarterly loss. But the damage was slightly muted by a pull back in oil, Fed President Lacker, and foreign inflows of capital.
The GBP was driven up as traders geared up for an anticipated Year over Year CPI number of 3.2%. This will trigger significant commentary from the Bank of England's Governor Mervyn King. By law, the bank will have to present a letter explaining why inflation is above 2%, what will be done to bring inflation back in line, and when inflation is expected to come back in line. Despite signs of a slowing UK economy, the BOE is likely to suggest that rate hikes will be necessary to combat inflation.
In the Euro-zone, year over year CPI came in at 3.7% (above expectations for 3.6%). Additionally, ECB Governing Council member Nout Wellink seemed to confirm currency traders anticipation of an ECB rate hike. He stated that markets "should not react to every change in the environment ... They should look through the information to see the underlying trends"
Reading between the lines, trends have been to focus on fighting inflation, which means more rate hikes.
In the US, the Empire Manufacturing survey fell much further than expected, declining to -8.7 (vs -4.7 expected). Oil futures shot out of the gates to an all time trading high of $139.89 before falling $5 in the afternoon. Additionally, Robert Novak published an article stating anticipations for a rate hike were off base. On the credit crunch front, Lehman Bros reported their first ever quarterly loss of $2.87 billion.
However, not everything was doom and gloom for the USD. US Capital inflow increased to $60 billion (from -$48 billion). Lehman Brothers was able to reduce mortgage holdings by 20% and slash their balance sheet by $147 billion. Additionally, they were able to raise $6 billion in new capital during the quarter. And Richmond Fed President Lacker reiterated "The principal risk is that high overall inflation will become embedded in expectations"
The pessimistic outlook for an economic slowdown spread to Japan, as the government cut expectations. For the second time in a row, the government used the key word 'pause', saying the "recovery appears to be pausing". Backing this assessment, condominium sales fell 17.5% in May.
The big news will happen early tomorrow morning as, the UK CPI and Goldman Sachs reports will be released before US markets open.
At 1am est, the EURUSD is at 1.5522, the GBPUSD 1.96580, and the USDJPY is at 107.79.
ECB, European Central Bank, CPI, GBP, Pound, USD
EUR, GBP See Minor Breakouts, Retreat on Pessimism
May 27, 2008
Backing up comments from several prominent Germans last week, Q1 GDP for Germany came in at 1.5%. Annualized rates are at 2.6%, the strongest growth in 12 years for the Eurozone's largest economy. Digging deeper, construction and business investment were strong drivers for the German growth. The Euro reached as high as $1.5818.
However, the Euro run was short lived as the Gfk consumer sentiment index fell more than expected. The Gfk data came in at 4.9, far below expectations of a 5.8 reading. All 3 components - economic outlook, spending, and personal income were down. In late trading, the EURUSD is at $1.5709. The pair closed at $1.5775 on Friday.
The Pound reached $1.9825 before retreating. BBA mortgage approvals saw an 8.8% rise in mortgage approvals to slightly over 38,700. However, that is still almost 40% lower than last year. In late trading, the Pound is at $1.9751, slightly below Friday' close of $1.9794.
In other European news, the UBS consumption indicator - which measures domestic demand - fell to 2.18 in April from an upwardly revised reading of 2.25 in March. This is still above the long term average of 1.50, but may be a prime indicator of the global toll of the oil. The CHFUSD was $1.0315 at press time.
Euro, GDP, EUR, GBP, Pound
Euro Up on Comments, UK and US Holidays. But Face It, the Data was Bad This Week.
May 23, 2008
The Euro closed up at $1.5775 on Friday, just shy of the $1.58 resistance. Overall, the Euro gained 1.2% against the dollar this week.
Eurozone data finished a week of negative news with 1 more bad report. The Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) fell to 51.1, lower than the expected reading of 51.7 and last month's reading of 51.9. Services fell 1.4 to 50.6, manufacturing was also down slightly to 50.5. Germany and France - which are the 2 largest Eurozone economies - experienced significant declines in services.
Despite the string of negative news this week, forex traders remained in bull mode. This was fueled by growing expectations that the ECB may actually raise rates this year despite ever growing signs of a European slowdown.
Traders were also preparing for holidays in the UK and US Monday, when markets will be closed. closed market holidays typically create illiquid markets and greater volatility.
The Euro has a strong chance of testing $1.60 next few weeks, as the US will see a significant amount of macro data next week and then earnings reports from the major financial institutions in early June.
The British Pound rose slightly to $1.9794, testing the $19.8 level. UK GDP came in at 0.4% and remains on pace for an annual growth of 2.5%.
ECB, Euro, GDP, EUR, Pound
Greenback Up Against Swiss Franc, Yen, GBP
May 6, 2008
US Treasuries continued to gain ground against other currencies. Against the Yen, the Dollar was trading at 104.81 (+0.12). The dollar aslgo gained ground on the pound sterling (+0.15) and the Swiss franc (0.009).
Read more at CNBC
Greenback, JPY, Franc, Yen, GBP, Pound, USD
Pound Slips on Data, Expectations
Apr 8, 2008
The British Pound dropped against several major currencies on Tuesday. The Sterling moved down -1.3% against the USD to a 6 week low of 1.9670. Selling was triggered by a drastic increase in the Halifax house prices. The bad economic data raised the chances the Bank of England will cut rates to 5% when they meet on April 10. The ECB is still expected to hold their currency at 4% on April 10.
Read More at Bloomberg
Bank of England, GBP, Pound
British Pound Bull Run - Buh Bye?
Apr 4, 2008
The British Pound (GBP), has been the winning horse in the USD trade for several years now. In 2001, the Sterling was 1.40, 36% below the high of November 2007.
The US housing sector looks bleak (like the Cubs, *sigh*), commodities are shooting through the roof, the Dems + media are talking down the economy daily, and the USD just had the worst quarter in 4 years. So the Pound will soldier on, right?
Not so fast! In this video, Adam Hewison examines the future prospects of the GBPUSD trade Using MarketClub's triangle trading system and Fibonacci retracements, he shows technical analysis suggesting the GBP is about to give up some of its' strength. Specifically, the GBPUSD market has already crossed the 32% fibonacci retracement from the high of 2.1161. After a short rebound from the 32% line, the market appears headed to the 50% retracement of 1.9109.
If that all sounds confusing, dont worry! Adam keeps it simple. and the charts do a great job of telling the story. Watch GBP/USD Technical Analysis
fibonacci, GBP, Pound, USD
