Chuch E Cash's Forex Blog
RBA: We will Cut Rates Soon
Aug 13, 2008
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In their policy statement released last week, the central bank of Australia all but guaranteed a rate cut before the year ends.
Today, they have made it a guarantee.
In a statement before Australian lawmakers, RBA Deputy Governor stated "We cannot wait to see a fall in inflation before we start cutting rates".
The AUD has been hit hard in recent weeks, falling 13 of the past 14 trading sessions and each of the past 7 days.
Like Europe, Australia has seen a sharp reduction in retail sales. While inflation remains considerably high at 4.4%, an interest rate of 7,.25% leaves them room to cut in an inflationary environment.
Helping the RBA's case, the latest Inflation Expectations report drop considerably from 5.9% to 4.9%.
Futures markets are now pricing in a 50bps rate cut in their Sept 2nd policy meeting.
interest rates, AUD, RBA, rate cut, comments
Early Morning FX Data Recap
Aug 12, 2008
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GBP
Today' trade balance and CPI data came in worse than expected.
CPI jumped to 4.4% vs expectations for a more modest rise to 4.1%. Even worse, core CPI (which excludes food, energy, and tobacco) rose unexpectedly 1.9% vs expectations of 1.7%.
This inflation data handcuffs the Bank of England, as they are unlikely to cut rates from 5.0% while inflation continues to rise.
OTOH, the UK economy is going to be in bad shape when they finally do cut rates. More evidence for this came in today's trade balance. The June trade balance came in at -£4.414 billion vs expectations for a total deficit of -£4.200 billion.
The GBPUSD tested 1.8970 twice overnight, recovering each time.
EUR
All signs point down for the Euro.
In perhaps the most important news, ECB member Bini Smaghi and Axel Weber indicated that Q2 GDP will be bad for the Euro-zone and Germany.
Mr. Weber indicated that the German economy is expected to experience a "dry spell" in the coming months, while avoiding a recession. His comments also downgraded German GDP expectations to 2% for 2008 and 1% for 2009. Previous projection placed 2008 GDP at 2.3% and 2009 GDP at 1.4%.
Mr. Smaghi warned the Euro-zone will "may have a phase of protracted weakness" in the next few quarters. However, he was quick to tow the party line, stressing it is "important to understand that in this phase inflation is the enemy of growth"
Their you have it, GDP should deteriorate in the Euro-zone and Germany, but the ECG remains focused on inflation and is thus unlikely to cut or raise rates.
The EURUSD is off morning lows but remains below 1.4900.
USD
The US trade balance unexpected narrowed in June to $56.8 billion. This significantly beat market expectations for a rise in the trade gap to $61.5 billion.
Additionally, May was revised lower from $59.7 billion to $59.2 billion.
CPI, trade balance, EUR, comments, GBP, USD
UK: RICS, Retail Sales Down
Aug 11, 2008
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The latest RICS and retail sales surveys show continued deterioration in the UK economy.
In the latest RICS survey, 93.9% of 303 contributors reported declining home values. This was somewhat above market expectations for a a reading of -88%. Nevertheless, July home sales set another record low, reading at a pace of 14.4, down 40.4% for the year. And, the ratio of unsold property vs completed sales fell to 17.2%, the lowest ;eve; in 13 years.
The news was not much better on the retail front. BRC data indicates same store sales declined -0.9% in July vs a previous rate of -0.4% in June. Total sales decline to +1.7% vs 2.1% in June.
The UK Consumer Price Index and Trade Balance will be reported early tomorrow morning.
GBP, retail sales, economic report, RICS, Pound
Forex Calendar Aug 10 - Aug 15
Aug 9, 2008
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The theme for this week in forex trading will be international GDP, CPI and trade balance reports. In all, continuing global economic deterioration could mean positive gains for the US Dollar.
Tuesday morning has several UK reports which may be Pound negative.
Tuesday night has 3 key reports from Japan - Trade Balance, GDP, and GDP annualized.
Thursday morning is laden with Euro-zone reports, including GDP and CPI for Germany (2am) France (2:45am) and the entire region (5am).
Sunday August 10
9:30pm Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Statement
Monday August 11
4am Italy Consumer Price Index MoM (expect 0.5%, previous 0.5%)
4:30am UK July Producer Price Index Output Core MoM (expect 0.4%, previous 0.3%)
4:30am UK July Producer Price Index Output Core YoY (expect 6.5%, previous 6.4%)
4:30am UK Trade Balance (expect -£4.20. billion , previous -£4.25 billion )
8:30am Canada June Housing Starts (expect 0.1%, previous 0%)
7pm UK RICS July House Price Survey (expect -90%, previous -88%)
7:50pm Japan July Corporate Price Index MoM (expect 0.8%, previous 0.8%)
7:50pm Japan July Corporate Price Index MoM (expect 5.7%, previous 5.6%)
9:30pm National Australia Bank Business Survey
Tuesday August 12
2:45am France June Current Account
2:45am France July Consumer Price Index MoM (expect -0.2%, previous +0.4%)
2:45am France July Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 3.7%, previous 3.6%)
4:30am UK July Consumer Price Index MoM (expect -0.2%, previous +0.7%)
4:30am UK July Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 4.2%, previous 3.8%)
4:30am UK July Core Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 1.7%, previous 1.6%)
8:30am US June Trade Balance (expect -$61.9 billion, previous -$59.8 billion)
6:45pm New Zealand Q2 Producer Prices
7:50pm Japan June Trade Balance (expect ¥293.6 billion, previous ¥529.4 billion)
7:50pm Japan Q2 GDP (expect -0.6%, previous 1.0%)
7:50pm Japan Q2 GDP Annualized (expect -2.3%, previous 4.0%)
Wednesday August 13
5:30am Bank of England Quarterly Inflation
8:30am US July Retail Sales (expect 0.4%, previous 0.1%)
8:30am US July Retail Sales excluding Autos (expect 0.7%, previous 0.8%)
10:35am US Crude Inventories
9pm Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation
Thursday August 14
2am Germany Q2 GDP (expect -0.8%, previous 1.5%)
2am Germany July Consumer Price Index MoM (0.6%, previous 0.6%)
2am Germany July Consumer Price Index YoY (3.3%, previous 3.3%)
2:45am France Q2 GDP (expect 0.1%, previous 0.5%)
2:45am France Q2 Non Farm Payrolls (expect 0.2%, previous 0.4%)
5am Euro-zone GDP (expect -0.2%, previous 0.7%)
5am Euro-zone July Consumer Price Index MoM (expect -0.1%, previous 0.4%)
5am Euro-zone July Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 4.1%, previous 4.0%)
8:30am US July Consumer Price Index MoM (expect 0.4%, previous 1.1%)
8:30am US July Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 5.2%, previous 5.0%)
8:30am US July Core Consumer Price Index MoM (expect 0.2%, previous 0.3%)
8:30am US July Core Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 2.4%, previous 2.4%)
6:45pm New Zealand June Retail Sales MoM
Friday August 15
9am US Treasury International Capital (TIC)
10am US August Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (expect 62.0, previous 61.2)
10:30am US Chicago Fed President Charles Evans to Speak on Economic Outlook
Euro, GDP, CPI, Yen, upcoming reports, Pound
Italian GDP Sends European FX Lower
Aug 8, 2008
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Italy, the 3rd largest economy in the Eurozone, reported a preliminary -0.3% reduction in Q2 GDP overnight.
Previously, Italy had recorder a 0.5% increase for Q1 and -0.3% for Q4 2007.
News of the negative GDP has sparked a technical busting rally in the Greenback against the Euro, Pound, and Franc.
The EURUSD is trading at 1.5066, 100 pips below the 50% fibonacci retracement of 50%. This is a sharp drop below the 1.53 - 1.60 range the pair has traded at since March.
The GBPUSD is also seeing technical levels shattered. The pair is trading at 1.9201, 200 pips below the the 1.94 support.
The USDCHF is trading at 1.07, a 5 month high and well above 1.06 resistance.
In related news, ECB Governing Council Member Wellink indicated Friday the ECB was ready to raise rates should CPI climb higher. He also reinforced recent market expectations for negative Euro-zone GDP growth in the second quarter, stating "I think it won't look so good"
fibonacci, Euro, European Central Bank, GDP, EUR
Euro, Pound Fall on European Pessimism
Aug 7, 2008
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The Euro is off sharply against most of the majors (EURAUD is currently the only exception). FX markets are adjusting for a rapid slow down in the Eurozone. Indeed, rumors abound that Eurozone Q2 GDP will be negative when reported Thursday August 14 at 2am est. Overall, the economic calendar is laden with UK and Euro reports, which may partly account for the 200+ pips drop in the EURUSD.
For the greenback, today's rally has to be somewhat of a head scratcher. Today&39;s news would have clobbered the dollar last month. Citigroup and Merrill Lynch announced they are buying back a combined $19 billion in securities from investors. AIG earnings disappointed big time. And, their was yet another pipeline attack, this time Turkey.
That the dollar is rallying in the face of such negative news may be a sure sign of a bottom.
The dollar is certainly favored in overnight index swaps, which are pricing in cuts of 50bps for the UK and 25bps for the ECB over the next 12 months. Conversely, the index is pricing in 75bps in US rate hikes over the next year.
Technically speaking, the Euro has fallen below a significant support at 1.53. The 50% fibonacci of 1.60 comes in at 1.5175, which should provide the next significant level of support.
Greenback, Euro, EUR, Pound, USD
Text of Trichet Speech
Aug 7, 2008
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Below is the full press release put out by the ECB this morning to accompany the rate decision.
I have NOT added any emphasis.
Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB,
Lucas Papademos, Vice President of the ECB
Frankfurt am Main, 7 August 2008
Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today's meeting of the Governing Council.
On the basis of our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided at today's meeting to leave the key ECB interest rates unchanged. The information that has become available since our previous meeting has further underpinned the reasoning behind our decision to increase interest rates in July. It has confirmed that annual inflation rates are likely to remain well above levels consistent with price stability for a protracted period of time and that risks to price stability over the medium term remain on the upside. This assessment is underpinned by continued vigorous money growth, with so far no signs of significant constraints on bank loan supply. In such a context, it remains crucial to avoid broadly based second-round effects in wage and price-setting. The latest economic data point to a weakening of real GDP growth in mid-2008, which in part was expected after the exceptionally strong growth in the first quarter. Against this background and in full accordance with our mandate, we emphasise that maintaining price stability in the medium term is our primary objective and that it is our strong determination to keep medium and long-term inflation expectations firmly anchored in line with price stability. This will preserve purchasing power in the medium term and support sustainable growth and employment. On the basis of our assessment, the current monetary policy stance will contribute to achieving our objective. We will continue to monitor very closely all developments over the period ahead.
Allow me to explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis.
The information on economic activity that has become available since the July press conference suggests that real GDP growth figures for mid-2008 will be substantially weaker than for the first quarter of the year. As indicated on previous occasions, this represents partly a technical reaction to the strong growth seen in the first months of the year. In addition, it also partly reflects a weakening in GDP growth due to factors such as slower expansion at the global level and dampening effects from high and volatile oil and food prices. In order to assess the underlying momentum of euro area economic activity and to avoid being misguided by highly volatile quarterly outturns, it is necessary to look through the volatility in quarter-on-quarter growth rates and monthly indicators.
Taking this perspective, growth in the world economy, while moderating, is expected to remain relatively resilient, benefiting in particular from sustained growth in emerging economies. This should support external demand for euro area goods and services. As regards domestic developments, in a medium-term perspective the fundamentals of the euro area are sound and the euro area does not suffer from major imbalances. Investment growth in the euro area has provided ongoing, though moderating, support to economic activity. Moreover, employment and labour force participation have increased significantly, and unemployment rates remain low in historical terms. However, these developments, which support household disposable income and consumption, are unlikely to fully compensate the loss of purchasing power caused by higher energy and food prices.
In the view of the Governing Council, the uncertainty surrounding this outlook for economic activity remains high, owing to, among other things, the very high and volatile levels of commodity prices and the ongoing tensions in financial markets. Overall, downside risks prevail. In particular, risks stem from the dampening impact on consumption and investment of further unanticipated increases in energy and food prices. Moreover, downside risks continue to relate to the potential for the financial market tensions to affect the real economy more adversely than currently anticipated. The possibility of disorderly developments owing to global imbalances also implies downside risks to the outlook for economic activity, as do concerns about the emergence of protectionist pressures. In this respect, the failure of the recent negotiations in the context of the World Trade Organization's Doha round on trade liberalisation is a major setback.
With regard to price developments, annual HICP inflation has remained considerably above the level consistent with price stability since last autumn, reaching 4.0% in June 2008 and, according to Eurostat's flash estimate, 4.1% in July. This worrying level of inflation rates results largely from both direct and indirect effects of past sharp increases in energy and food prices at the global level. At the same time, while labour productivity growth has decelerated, there are some indications that labour cost growth has been rising in recent quarters.
Looking ahead, on the basis of current futures prices for commodities, the annual HICP inflation rate is likely to remain well above a level consistent with price stability for quite some time, moderating only gradually in 2009.
Risks to price stability at the policy-relevant medium-term horizon remain clearly on the upside and have increased over the past few months. These risks include notably the possibility of further increases in energy and food prices and of increasing indirect effects on consumer prices. There is a very strong concern that price and wage-setting behaviour could add to inflationary pressures via broadly based second-round effects. The Governing Council is monitoring price-setting behaviour and wage negotiations in the euro area with particular attention. Furthermore, there are potential upside risks from unanticipated rises in indirect taxes and administered prices.
Against this background, it is imperative to ensure that medium to longer-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored at levels in line with price stability. The shift in relative prices and the related transfer of income from commodity-importing countries to commodity-exporting countries require a change in the behaviour of companies and households. Therefore, broadly based second-round effects stemming from the impact of higher energy and food prices on price and wage-setting behaviour must be avoided. All parties concerned, in both the private and the public sector, must meet their responsibilities in this regard. In this context, the Governing Council has repeatedly expressed its concern about the existence of schemes in which nominal wages are indexed to consumer prices. Such schemes involve the risk of upward shocks in inflation leading to a wage-price spiral, which would be detrimental to employment and competitiveness in the countries concerned. The Governing Council therefore calls for such schemes to be avoided.
The monetary analysis confirms the prevailing upside risks to price stability at medium to longer-term horizons. In line with our monetary policy strategy, we take the view that the sustained underlying strength of monetary and credit expansion in the euro area over the past few years has created upside risks to price stability. Over recent quarters, these risks appear to have become manifest as inflation has trended upwards.
Not least in the face of the ongoing tensions in financial markets, the monetary analysis helps to support the necessary medium-term orientation of monetary policy by focusing attention on the upside risks to price stability prevailing at medium to longer horizons. While the growth of broad money and credit aggregates is now showing some signs of moderation, also reflecting the policy measures taken since 2005 to address upside risks to price stability, the strong underlying pace of monetary expansion points to continued risks to price stability over the medium term.
The current yield curve has led to very rapid increases in time deposits and to a substantial decline in annual M1 growth. Such effects and other temporary factors must be taken into account in assessing monetary developments. Overall, a broad-based analysis of the data, taking the appropriate medium-term perspective, confirms the underlying strength of money growth.
One of the main factors leading to this conclusion is the still high growth of MFI loans to the private sector, which is underpinning the robust nature of monetary growth. The pace, maturity and sectoral composition of bank borrowing suggest that, at the level of the euro area as a whole, the availability of bank credit has, as yet, not been significantly affected by the ongoing financial tensions. Higher short-term interest rates and housing market weakness in several parts of the euro area have dampened the growth of household borrowing over the past few years. By contrast, and notwithstanding tighter financing conditions and moderating economic growth, the expansion of bank credit to non-financial corporations thus far remains very robust.
To sum up, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with that of the monetary analysis clearly confirms the assessment of increasing upside risks to price stability over the medium term. Annual inflation rates are likely to remain well above levels consistent with price stability, and monetary aggregates continue to grow vigorously, with so far no signs of significant constraints on bank loan supply. The latest economic data point to a weakening of real GDP growth in mid-2008, which in part was expected after the exceptionally strong growth in the first quarter. Against this background, it remains crucial to avoid broadly based second-round effects in wage and price-setting. In full accordance with our mandate, we emphasise that maintaining price stability in the medium term is our primary objective and that it is our strong determination to keep medium and long-term inflation expectations firmly anchored in line with price stability, thereby preserving purchasing power in the medium term and supporting sustainable growth and employment in the euro area. On the basis of our assessment, the current monetary policy stance will contribute to achieving our objective. We will continue to monitor very closely all developments over the period ahead.
Regarding fiscal policy, there are risks that some countries will not achieve their fiscal targets this year. In this situation a rigorous implementation of budget plans and the avoidance of expenditure slippage are of crucial importance. Budget plans for 2009, which are currently being finalised in a number of countries, need to reflect European commitments. In particular, countries with still large deficits must provide ambitious and concrete deficit reduction plans, backed by clearly specified measures, preferably on the expenditure side. Where budgetary scope is available, automatic stabilisers can contribute to the smoothing of cyclical economic fluctuations.
As regards structural policies, measures which reduce adjustment costs and promote moderate unit labour cost growth are of the utmost importance, particularly in the current climate of high inflation and slowing real GDP growth. These include the removal of impediments to competition in the services sector in general, and at the various stages of the food supply chain in the retail and distribution sectors, as well as in the energy sector, more specifically. Equally, making labour markets more flexible and enhancing investment in education and training would foster productivity, thereby increasing the scope for increases in real incomes.
We are now at your disposal for questions.
Source European Central Bank
ECB, Euro, European Central Bank, interest rates, Trichet, Papademos
ECB, BOE Hold Rates Steady
Aug 7, 2008
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As just about everyone expected, the Bank of England and European Central Bank have held rates steady at 5.00% and 4.25%.
The Bank of England minutes will be available at 5:30am est on August 13th.
Jean Trichet's news conference will be held at 8:30am est today.
Given that German industrial output missed by a big margin, do not expect any hawkish sentiment.
Bank of England, ECB, European Central Bank, BOE
FOMC Statement Analysis
Aug 5, 2008
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As widely expected, the FOMC held rates steady at 2% today.
The key to today's meeting was the statement released along with the decision.
1. They omitted the phrase in June's statement that indicated risks to growth appear "to have diminished somewhat."
Clearly, they are reacting to recent turmoil surrounding Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Lehman Brothers. As I suggested earlier this week, the FOMC is chiefly concerned about liquidity, not inflation.
2. Their was only one dissenter, Dallas Reserve President Richard W. Fisher.
Leading up to the meeting, their had been some speculation that Philly Reserve President Charles Plosser would join Mr. Fisher's dissent. I believe we will see the dissent count rise to 2 or 3 in a meeting before the Fed finally does raise rates. As such, we are at least 2 meetings away from Fed rate hikes.
However, readers should remember that Frederic Mishkin will be stepping down at the end of this month. It will be interesting to see how the dynamic of the Board plays out as Elizabeth Duke essentially replaces the departing Governor.
3. The committee stated "the Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year, but the inflation outlook remains highly uncertain."
That is pretty clear. Like many other central banks, the FOMC expects a slowdown in the economy to reduce inflation risks, without an increase in rates. However, the geopolitical concerns behind recent oil pricing makes this expectation uncertain.
So how does the US Dollar perform for the remainder of the week?
I think many traders had already bought into the notion the Fed was to be dovish today, and were thus not disappointed.
Across the Atlantic, news continues to sour for the UK and Euro-zone.
Today, the Nationwide survey of UK consumer confidence fell 11 points to 51. Year over year, that is a 46% decline in confidence, the steepest drop in the history of the report. And, industrial output fell to an annual rate of -1.6. In the Euro-zone, retail sales hit -3.1% today, and PMI slipped further into contraction at 48.3 for July.
For Thursday, Trichet and the ECB are unlikely to make hawkish statements. They are more likely to take a page from the FOMC and warn of downside risks with the expectation inflation will soften over the next few quarters on a weakening economy.
Their is a growing chance the Bank of England will signal a rate cut in their statement.
Given that forex markets have been dealing with a weak American economy for several months, the rapid slowdown across Europe and other parts of the world will probably play a bigger factor in trading action over the next few weeks.
Bank of England, European Central Bank, inflation, interest rates, FOMC, USD
RBA Joins Wait and See Crowd, Holds
Aug 4, 2008
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The Reserve Bank of Australia has officially joined the tide of wait and see.
As expected by just about everyone, they held rates steady at 7.25%.
But despite early market anticipations for a rate cut by October, and a slew of negative economic data, their statement remained considerably hawkish.
"The rise in Australia’s terms of trade that is currently occurring is...adding substantially to national income and ability to spend. At the same time, high prices of oil and a range of other commodities have added to global inflationary risks. They are also dampening growth in a number of countries."
Note the 'other countries' comment. Clearly, the RBA remains convinced Australian commodities will remain a source of growth forth foreseeable future.
As most expected, the RBA did caution on growth.
"The evidence is that the tightening in financial conditions, in conjunction with other factors including rising fuel costs, and lower asset values, has restrained demand...credit expansion to both households and businesses has slowed significantly. Surveys suggest a softening in business activity, and there have also been some early signs of an easing in labour market conditions."
Like Europe and so many other countries, the Australians are starting to see signs of a slowing economy. Nevertheless inflation remain s a concern for the short term.
"On balance, however, it is looking more likely that demand will remain subdued, and economic growth will be fairly slow, over the period ahead. Inflation is likely to remain relatively high in the short term, with the CPI affected by high global oil prices. Looking further ahead, inflation in both CPI and underlying terms is likely to decline over time, given the outlook for demand, provided wages growth remains moderate. The Bank’s forecast remains that inflation will fall below 3 per cent during 2010."
Like most of the industrialized world, a conundrum of sorts has formed. Caught between inflation pressures and early signs of a slowing economy, the RBA must wait for a clearing of the economic waters.
Welcome to the world of wait and see Governor Glenn Stevens.
Carry Trade, AUD, Aussie, RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia
Forex Preview August 3 - August 8
Aug 3, 2008
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The core theme of the week will be rate decisions from 4 central banks and attached commentary.
Australia and US bank rates are declared on Tuesday.
On Thursday, banks in Great Britain and the Eurozone announce rate decisions.
All 4 banks are expected to remain on hold. The real market movement will come from associated statements
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is apt to remain confident in economic growth and focus on inflationary concerns.
- the US FOMC is likely to focus on a struggling economy with inflation a secondary concern that can be dealt with later
- The Bank of England will presumably highlight a faltering economy, indicating rate cuts may be needed sooner rather than later. If their is one bank that surprises with rate movement this week, the BOE will be it with a rate cut.
- The ECB can be a wild card. Inflation remains double their mandate target. Yet, signs of a Eurozone slowdown are spreading like wildfire. With oil pulling back, their is reason to believe Trichet is going to stress a wait and see approach. However, hawkish comments on inflationary concerns remain a possibility.
Aside from the central bank action, markets are also likely to move on unemployment reports out of New Zealand on Wednesday, and Switzerland, Canada on Friday. The New Zealand report is the only significant data coming out on Wednesday, and as such may gain unusual attention.
Three other events to watch for are:
- the US PCE on Monday (I think their is potential for upside surprise).
- Eurozone Retail Sales and US ISM Services ahead of the FOMC rate decision on Tuesday
Sunday August 3
9:30pm Australia House Price Index (expect -1.3% QoQ, 8% YoY)
11pm New Zealand Commodity Price Index
Monday August 4
5am Eurozone PPI (expect 0.8% MoM, 7.9% YoY)
8:30am United States Personal Consumption Expenditure (expect 0.4% MoM, 2.2% YoY)
Tuesday August 5
12:30am Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (expect hold at 7.25%)
4:30am Great Britain Industrial Production (expect 01% MoM, -1.2% YoY)
5am Eurozone Retail Sales (expect -0.6% MoM, -1.3% YoY)
10am ISM Services (expect 51.0 from 48.2, signaling growth)
2:15pm United States Fed Rate Decision (expect hold at 2%)
7pm Great Britain Consumer Confidence
Wednesday August 6
10:35am United States Crude Inventories
6:45pm New Zealand Employment Report (expect 0.2% QoQ, -0.6% YoY)
6:45pm New Zealand Unemployment Rate (expect 3.8%)
Thursday August 7
2am German Trade Balance (expect €15.5 billion)
2:45am French Trade Balance (expect €-4.6 billion)
7am Great Britain Rate Decision (expect hold at 5%)
7:45am European Central Bank Rate Decision
8:30am ECB President Trichet Press Conference
10am US Pending Home Sales (expect -1.3%)
Friday August 8
1:45am Switzerland Unemployment Rate (expect 2.3%)
4am Italy GDP (expect 0.0% QoQ, 0.3% YoY)
7am Canada Unemployment Rate (expect 6.2%)
Bank of England, ECB, European Central Bank, BOE, jobs report, RBA, upcoming reports, Fed, FOMC
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